Swiss Cancer Research

What will be the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on HPV-associated cancers in Switzerland? A mathematical modelling study

Swiss Cancer Research

Start/End: 01.02.2015 – 31.08.2017
Approved amount: 261’900 CHF (~ 258k USD)
Applicant(s): Christian L. Althaus, Nicola Low, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Johannes Bogaards, Matthias Egger, Sandro Gsteiger

Susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission (from Bogaards JA, et al (2010) Am J Epidemiol 171(7):817-25).

Susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission (from Bogaards JA, et al (2010) Am J Epidemiol 171(7):817-25).

Switzerland has cantonal programmes to offer vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection to adolescent girls to prevent cervical cancer cases that are caused by two high-risk types of HPV. HPV is also a cause of several other cancers, including some cancers of the mouth and throat, of the anal canal, vulva, vagina and penis. The programmes started in 2008. HPV vaccination is expected to prevent new cases and deaths from a range of cancers in the future but the impact will not be seen for many years and will depend on uptake of HPV vaccine, which varies widely between cantons and has been lower than hoped.

This project aims to determine how many future cases and deaths from cancer in Switzerland could be prevented by HPV vaccination. We aim to improve on previous projections by using data sources that are specific to Switzerland, wherever possible. This includes using data about actual vaccine uptake in different cantons. We will also investigate whether current vaccination patterns provide value for money and how cost-effectiveness could be improved.

Publications
  1. Riesen M, Garcia V, Low N, Althaus CL. (2017) Modeling the consequences of regional heterogeneity in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination uptake on transmission in Switzerland. bioRxiv, 125518.